The number of individuals employed in the manufacturing sector is of particular importance to Louisiana since this sector is the largest portion of the state economy. As a result, it occupies a relatively higher portion of the total number is individuals employed in the state.
Jobs in Manufacturing
Manufacturing employment in thousands is plotted below in blue1. Starting in 1998, manufacturing jobs have been declining on aggregate. From January 1998 to Janurary 2005 over 30,000 manufacturing jobs fled the state and have not returned. There was a sharp transient drop in jobs following Katrina but the market recovered within 12 months. This indicates that manufacturing jobs did not dissappear because of Katrina, but rather those individuals that held the jobs were dissplaced.
Because of the sector’s importance to the larger state economy, this measure of employment signals a potential for policy makers to alter their current policy course in favor of a long term, optimal solution.
Manufacturing Employment Forecasts
Forecasts2 for manufacturing employment in Louisiana are made from an aggregation of multiple statistical models designed to approximate the underlying data generating process of the available data. A Bayesian model averaging approach is used here to capture the joint uncertainty that any given model may be misspecified as well as capturing the probabilistic uncertainty inherent in each individual estimate. Observed data is given in blue while forecasts are presented in orange. The weighted average of all models used is represented by the solid orange line. The upper bound and lower of the cone of uncertainty surrounding these estimates is represented by the dashed upper and lower lines respectively.
Please note that the graphs below are interactive HTML widgets. Please hover over each to examine the underlying data that comprises them.↩
Forecasts are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only without any explicit or implied warranty. The authors and publishers of this post and site bear no responsibility for the information provided here and cannot be held liable for any negative consequences that may arise due its publication. Forecasting the future is inherently a tricky proposition, and all forecasts have an error term attached to them. Please exercise caution when making financial and business decisions based on the information provided. Use this information as a single input into your decisions making process.↩