Unemployment Rate

The Louisiana unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of individuals unemployed to the total number of individuals in the labor force. As economic conditions improve more individuals join the labor force and more are hired, decreasing the overall ratio. In times of economic crises/uncertainty the opposite occurs. The unemployment rate is one of the primary bellwethers that most individuals and businesses examine to indicate where the regional economy is headed.

Unemployment Rate

Below the unemployment rate for Louisiana is expressed by the blue line1. We can see historically that the mid to late 1980s as well as the months following the landfall of hurricane Katrina saw the highest levels of headline unemployment for the state.

The overall series mimics the cyclical pattern inherent in the national headline unemployment rate data. From an employment perspective, the Louisiana economy has recovered from the financial crisis. This is one of the relatively few economic indicators that imply this conclusion though.

Unemployment Rate Forecasts

Forecasts2 for Louisiana unemployment rate are made from an aggregation of multiple statistical models designed to approximate the underlying data generating process of the available data. A Bayesian model averaging approach is used here to capture the joint uncertainty that any given model may be misspecified as well as to capturing the probabilistic uncertainty inherent in each individual estimate. Observed data is given in blue while forecasts are presented in orange. The weighted average of all models used is represented by the solid orange line. The upper bound and lower of the cone of uncertainty surrounding these estimates is represented by the dashed upper and lower lines respectively.

 


  1. Please note that the graphs below are interactive HTML widgets. Please hover over each to examine the underlying data that comprises them.

  2. Forecasts are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only without any explicit or implied warranty. The authors and publishers of this post and site bear no responsibility for the information provided here and cannot be held liable for any negative consequences that may arise due its publication. Forecasting the future is inherently a tricky proposition, and all forecasts have an error term attached to them. Please exercise caution when making financial and business decisions based on the information provided. Use this information as a single input into your decisions making process.

Patrick is an assistant professor of Economics at Louisiana Tech University. He researches interest rate determination and the inflationary consequences of suboptimal monetary policy. He teaches monetary economics, research methods & macroeconomic theory.